Assignment 1: Population Dynamics

Abstract

A company wants to invest in a business located in Jacksonville, FL. The team is unsure which type of business to invest in as they have different ideas of which demographics might be more marketable than others. Some think that Florida's growing children population could be a good market, some feel as though the company should look to high amounts of retired people as potential customers, and some feel as though Florida's large hispanic population is the most marketable. By looking at these different populations, the company can determine which demographic truly is the best to market to with their business investment.

*All calculations done in this assignment are based on estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau

Jacksonville's Population Pyramid

Figure 1. Population pyramid of Jacksonville, FL

The population pyramid shows a visual representation of Jacksonville's population dynamics in terms of age and sex. There are a fairly even amount of men and women with the exception of women 55 and older outnumbering men 55 and older. It's also evident that there are a large concentration of people aged 20 to 29, this could be due to Jacksonville's many universities and other postsecondary education options. There is also another bulge in the graph of people aged 45-59, this could represent the "baby-boomer" and "X" generations, where a lot of babies were born in the U.S. 45-59 years ago.

Calculating Dependency Ratios

The dependency ratio compares the non-working population (youth and the elderly) to the working population of a given place. The population data used to calculate these statistics is given in four year increments and represented as a percentage of the total population of Jacksonville (~846,951 people). The youth dependency ratio (YDR) is the sum of populations under 5 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years.

6.9% * 846,951 = 58,739 people under 5 years

6.6% * 846,951 = 55,379 people aged 5-9 years

6.1% * 846,951 = 52,019 people aged 10-14 years

Total YDR = 166,137 people

Next, the elderly dependency ratio (EDR) is calculated. This group is meant to represent citizens of Jacksonville that are no longer contributing to the work force (on average), aged 65 years and older.

4.3% * 846,951 = 36,502 people aged 65-69 years

2.8% * 846,951 = 23,770 people aged 70-74 years

1.9% * 846,951 = 16,585 people aged 75-79 years

1.5% * 846,951 = 12,377 people aged 80-84 years

1.6% * 846,951 = 13,252 people 85 years and older

Total EDR = 102,486 people

Figure 2. Formula for calculating dependency ratios

The dependency ratio (DR) for Jacksonville is calculated using the formula in Figure 2. This is done by adding the YDR and EDR together which returns the total number of dependents, then dividing by the population of people aged 15-64, this is the total working population. Lastly, multiplying the resulting quotient by 100 will return the DR.

Number of Dependents = (Total YDR + Total EDR) = 268,623

Population (Ages 15-64) = (Total Population - Number of Dependents) = 578,328

DR = 46.448

For the state of Florida, the dependency ratio is :

Total YDR = 3,339,781

Total EDR = 3,634,468

Number of Dependents = (Total YDR + Total EDR) = 6,974,249

Population (Ages 15-64) = (Total Population - Number of Dependents) = 12,671,523

DR = 55.039

Looking at the data, there are 63,651 more youth dependents (those 14 and younger) in Jacksonville than elderly dependents (those older than 65). This difference accounts for about 7.5% of the Jacksonville population, which is quite a significant difference considering that youth dependents account for nearly a fifth (19.6%) of Jacksonville's population and elderly dependents only account for just over an eighth (12.1%).

Calculating Location Quotients

The location quotient shows where groups of certain demographics are concentrated as compared to the country's average.

Table 1. Used to calculate location quotients for various geographies of Florida

To calculate the Location Quotient of a given geography in either Jacksonville, Duval county, or the state of Florida, one must divide the percent population of that place by the percent population of the United States. 1 indicates that a given area has an average concentration of a particular group (ie. 10-14 population of Duval County), greater than 1 indicates a higher than average concentration, and lower than 1 indicates a lower than average concentration.

LQ = (percent population at city, county, or state level)/ (percent population at US level) 

LQ (Pop. 0-14): Jacksonville = 1.02 , Duval County = 1 , Florida = .88

LQ (Pop. 65+): Jacksonville = .86 , Duval County = .87 , Florida = 1.32

LQ (Hispanic): Jacksonville = .5 , Duval County = .49 , Florida = 1.39

LQ (White): Jacksonville = .86 , Duval County = .89 , Florida = .90

Notice the above average youth dependent concentration in Jacksonville. There is also a greatly above average concentration of elderly dependents and hispanic populations at the state level for Florida.

Selected Economic Characteristics

The location quotients for various economic sectors of Jacksonville is shown in Table 2. It lists financial, professional, educational, arts, other, and public administration sectors and their concentration compared to the average in the state of Florida. Percentages were calculated by dividing the sector by the total number of service industries. Location quotients were calculated by dividing the percentages of Jacksonville's service industries by the percentages of Florida's industries.

Table 2. Shows location quotient of various economic sectors for Jacksonville, FL

 Looking at Table 2, there is an above average concentration of both financial and public administration sectors. This might be indicative of the large number of college students and the working population. 

Analysis

After having looked at Jacksonville's age and sex population pyramid, dependency ratios, and location quotients of population, demographic, and economic sectors, there are a few good options for what type of business to invest in. Due to the high amount of young people in the work force as well as the soon-to-retire population, it might be smart to market to the elderly. Although there aren't too many elderly dependents currently in Jacksonville, there will be within the next decade once the late baby-boomer generation reaches that age and the large percentage of Jacksonville's population, the working population, will come steadily after them. This could be a good market assuming that the baby-boomers and current working population won't move after retirement. 

Another potentially good investment could be to market to youth populations. With youth dependents making up nearly an eighth of Jacksonville's population, having an above average concentration than the rest of the country, and increasing steadily, there is a good market up for grabs with this age group. With the large amount of jobs in financial and public administration sectors, this could be attractive to young people who want to settle down and start having children, thus feeding the already high concentration of this population.  

College-aged students could be a good group to focus marketing on as well. Having a few universities and multiple colleges, vocational schools, and the like will attract that age group for as long as they are up and running. Not to mention the upwelling of youth could likely result in that population staying in Jacksonville to receive a postsecondary education. There are above average financial and public administration sectors to offer jobs to recently graduated students as well. 

Overall, the best marketing option to invest in is the youth population. They make up nearly 20% or an eighth of the cities total population and birth rates have been rising for a few years. With the many job opportunities in financial and public administration sectors, adults seeking to become parents can easily find work and afford to have children.